Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
