A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
